Not solely is the bear market not over, however it would get a lot worse in 2023. This implies traders must have a long-term time horizon and make investments for 2024 or have very brief time horizons, similar to a half hour, in line with the Astrologers Fund.
“The overall consensus is that markets are going decrease within the first quarter of 2023 as a result of earnings aren’t sturdy. Many assume the market will find yourself subsequent yr the place we are actually, which is the place the market was when Biden was elected. However we do not,” mentioned Henry Weingarten, managing director of the Astrologers Fund at its 2023 World Funding Outlook final week.
Weingarten agrees with Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley
Weingarten mentioned inflation is right here to remain and predicts it would stay above 5% for all 2023. This might result in stagflation, a mix of recession and inflation. “Anybody who tells you we’re not presently in a recession is in LaLa Land,” he added.
Why hearken to the Astrologers Fund?
The fund makes use of each basic and technical evaluation on shares and the broad market. Then Weingarten seems to the celebs to find out when main astrological occasions, which may have an effect on the markets, will occur.
After I wrote up the worldwide outlooks of various funding banks and fund corporations a yr in the past the one group that predicted the market crash was the Astrologers Fund.
Final yr, the week earlier than Christmas, Weingarten instructed the viewers to promote shares, go to money and give attention to portfolio safety because the market would fall 15-25% in 2022. The S&P 500 hit an all-time excessive the primary buying and selling day of this yr, Jan. 3, and ends the yr down precisely 20%. He based mostly this on a star sample referred to as Saturn sq. Uranus, which represents change, destruction, and exposes crack in society’s basis. One can interpret this as a harbinger of the Russia-Ukraine Struggle. He additionally predicted inflation would rise to between 5% and 10%.
He mentioned the most important unknowns subsequent yr are when will the Federal Reserve pause rate of interest hikes, the Struggle, and China’s Zero-Covid coverage, which is able to have an effect on every thing. He mentioned put together for lots of volatility in 2023, that worth shares and revenue and dividends will outperform progress shares, and that inventory selecting will beat index funds.
Three Swing Trades
Weingarten gave three trades to make now.
· Brief the S&P 500 earlier than Jan. 5 then once more round March 1 and April 22. Weingarten mentioned the index has technical resistance between 3900 and 4200 and to brief at this degree. His 5 assist ranges for the index are 3800, 3600, 3400, 3300, and 3000. The index closed the yr at 3839.
· The Astrologer Fund’s Desert Island Decide is Magazine Silver (MAG), who sponsored the convention. He mentioned decide it up between $12 and $15 and that it’s going to rise to $20 or greater. This aligns with the fund’s suggestion to purchase silver. Magazine’s present share value is $15.63.
· Purchase oil between $69 – $72 and $80 – $86. He referred to as this a basic play. Western Texas crude is presently at $80.45.
Present buying and selling suggestions are to brief the 10-year US Treasury bond when the yield is between 3.4% and three.8%, and brief the S&P 500 at 3963 and 3895.
To profit from inflation, the fund recommends shopping for gold – a basic inflation hedge – and commodities, similar to oil, pure gasoline, metals and agricultural merchandise, as their costs are inclined to rise with inflation.
Market Positives for 2023
1. Authorities stimulus – Inflation Discount Act
2. China Zero-Covid coverage ending
3. When Ukraine Ceasefire begins
4. Misplaced of money on the sideline
5. Perception that inflation will peaking with Fed Pause
6. 12 months 3 in Presidential Market cycle
Market Negatives for 2023
1. Inflation issues, particularly because it stays larger than 5%
2. Biden financial insurance policies, Inflation Discount Act, and taxes
3. US Client Sentiment hits a decade low
4. Inverted yield curve & Fed resolve
5. Meme shares, similar to BBBY, and/or crypto collapsing, FTX,
6. Financial after results of Covid -19 – debt defaults, bankruptcies and provide chain disruptions
7. China & Russia US Commerce Spat/warfare
8. Declining earnings and falling main financial indicators
9. Normal potential Black and White Swan occasions
View on Gold and Silver
God and silver stay favourite investments. Essentially the worldwide political and financial state of affairs is favorable for each metals with international silver demand hitting a document excessive in 2022
Weingarten mentioned gold stays low-cost geopolitical disaster insurance coverage and is a beautiful different danger mitigation hedge. He expects valuable steel shares to outperform bodily gold and sliver subsequent yr. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX
He mentioned to purchase gold when it falls beneath $1780 and promote between 1850 and 2000. Purchase silver beneath $22 and promote between $26 and $30.
Weingarten mentioned the failure of foreign money change FTX just isn’t a constructive. As traders understand Bitcoin
Weingarten based mostly a few of his predictions on a star formation Guru Chandala Yoga Transit which is able to happen in April and November. The Guru Chandala Yoga is related to detrimental issues.
“This happens when Jupiter and Rahu (North node) are in the identical rashi or sidereal signal, about each 7.2 years. Lots of the occurrences are close to essential main highs and low factors. Thus this can be a bullish or detrimental inventory market indicator. Many consider this time it would presage bearish markets for a lot of those eight months and I concur,” mentioned Weingarten. Up to now, this occasion occurred within the August earlier than 9/11 and Could 1929, months earlier than the October market crash that ushered in The Nice Melancholy.
The primary half of 2023 is taken into account by most monetary astrologers to presage a worldwide recession or at greatest very weak progress with inventory markets in search of a backside. Traders must be extra cautious as elevated inflation and recession aka stagflation can also be an actual chance.
Weingarten mentioned Western monetary astrologers are watching the 2 photo voltaic eclipses this yr.
“Many eclipses have dramatic results in markets,” he mentioned. “Some deliver robust rallies, however we do not consider that would be the case this April. Typically it is very constructive, however most frequently not.”
The total presentation will be discovered on YouTube.